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Whitepaper

2Q 2026 Private Real Estate Performance

KEY HIGHLIGHTS

  • Private real estate returns remained positive in the second quarter, supported by income and stabilizing
    appreciation.
  • The NCREIF Property Index returned 1.3% in 2Q 2026, driven almost entirely by income at 1.2%,
    while appreciation was modest at 0.1%. The one-year total return was 5.0%, comprised of a 4.7%
    income return and 0.3% appreciation.
  • Private real estate outperformed bonds (+0.7%) during the quarter but lagged listed REITs (+12.2%)
    and a resurgent stock market (+15.2%).
  • Appraisal-based real estate values have produced modest positive returns over the past six quarters,
    although capital values remain 18.6% below their 2022 peak.
  • Transaction activity and lending conditions are improving, but compressed cap rate spreads and
    continuing gap between transaction and appraisal pricing indicate that valuation risk has not fully
    receded. These conditions may indicate more attractive relative pricing in portions of the current
    transaction market than in certain appraisal-based legacy portfolios.
  • Fundamentals remain generally resilient outside of the office sector, with stable occupancy across most
    other sectors. However, there is dispersion in rent growth, occupancy, and net operating income
    performance at both the sector and market levels, reinforcing the need for sector and asset selection.
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